The Vote

In my last post, I spoke a lot about the 2016 Election and the immediate aftermath.  Today, I am going to dive deeper into the actual vote.  Keep in mind, I am not a professional analyst.  I am a “lay person” and my analysis is based solely on what I have read and my instincts and education.

It appears as though Hillary Clinton is on the way to win the popular vote by 1.5 million votes.  That will translate to about a full percentage point.  Yet, she will not be our next president.  This is because of the Electoral College, more on that later.

Immediately after the election (I’m talking 2 or 3 days) every analyst has said the Democratic Party is now doomed and they are quick to discount the popular vote.  Because our electoral system, it’s easy to ignore the popular vote, but in this case it cannot be overlooked.

If these totals hold, Hillary Clinton will have won more votes than any other candidate for president, other than Barack Obama.  Let that sink in.  More people in this country will have chosen Hillary Clinton that Donald Trump.  Yet, the media will continue to treat this as a footnote. But, it cannot be forgotten.

Additionally, if you look at third party candidates, more people will have voted against Trump then voted for him.  70 million people voted against Trump versus the 60 million who voted for him.  Let that sink in.  Trump is a loser.  He will become President of the United States and it is a legitimate win, but make no mistake, he is a loser.  Just like his taxes, he found a loophole.

Now, how did he win?  If you look at PA, MI, and WI, his vote margin was less than 1%.  Third party candidates, especially Gary Johnson, received 3 to 4 percent of the vote.  That’s how Clinton lost those states.  Yes, there was heavy turnout in rural areas, but the third party, just like in 2000 cost the Democratic nominee the election.  Again, let that sink in.

I would suggest that in the next few weeks we will hear about 3rd Party voters saying they regret their votes.  Just like in 2000, many Nader voters came out and said they should have voted for Gore, but didn’t realize their vote mattered so much.  There is nothing inherently wrong with 3rd party candidates, however, until our entire electoral system is completely overhauled, the 3rd parties are a protest vote.

At this point Democrats are looking to reinvent the wheel and are in full panic mode.  They don’t have to be.  I honestly believe that after a year (or less) of Donald Trump, the people who voted for him will realize they were conned and will come back to the party.  Additionally, the Democratic base did not come out and vote.  They stayed home.  They were complacent.

Although Clinton had a more organized Get Out the Vote effort, it was no match to the anger Trump tapped in the rural areas of the country.  Trump over performed Romney from 2012 in those areas and Clinton underperformed in her strongholds.  Thus, she lost the three states which were most important to her election; MI, PA, and WI.

 

 

 

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